Author:Nassim Nicholas Taleb Binding: Hardcover Published: 2007-04-17 ISBN: 1400063515 Availability:
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ISBN13: 9781400063512
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A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible." For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. Now, in this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know. He offers surprisingly simple tricks for dealing with black swans and benefiting from them. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book-itself a black swan. *2nd Edition, With a new essay: "On Robustness and Fragility"
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below.
Guest Reviewer: Chris Anderson Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but it's something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
Customer Reviews:
Avg. Customer Rating: 3.5 / 5.0
Give Me Ambiguity or Give Me Something Else:
First, understand that I say everything here in the same spirit that I give my 20 something daughter advice: This is all TIOLI: "Take It Or Leave It." Had I read the reviews and discussions before reading the book, I might have held off on buying it since after a ways into it I'd actually give it a one star but because of the many thoughtful reviews and discussions it's worth a five. First, a few cliches: Recent quote:" I used to think my brain was the most important organ. Then I realized who was... more info
flight of ideas- an insecure author's rantings:
I wanted to like this book because I can identify with many of the premises. I abhor the faulty use of models - mathematical and otherwise - and I certainly believe in skepticism. But reading this book was, like interviewing a brilliant psychotic, painful. The author doth protest too much -- railing against academics, Frenchmen, bankers (easy targets...yes?)-- but in the end the most an intelligent reader will get is the banal observation that models used outside of their appropriate domain are inaccurate... more info
Review of the second edition: When is the "Black Swan Cookbook" coming out?:
I admit it: I am a "Black Swan" groupie. Maybe I'm one of those people who heartily express their agreement with Taleb and then go back to applying the same flawed models "made in Mediocristan" to illuminate our way through Extremistan. But I still delude myself into thinking that the book had a profound impact on me. That I am wiser because of it. Maybe if I read the book enough times I will some day cease to be a turkey... In any case, I bought the second edition, not just for the new section but also to... more info
Stating the obvious, solution to none:
A compilation of pretentious citations from historical literature and anecdotes, this book is an intellectually hollow basket delivered with a bombardment of flamboyant arrogance. It is a lengthy elaboration of an obvious problem that is widely recognized, consciously or subconsciously, by anyone with some basic analytic education: Total prescience is simply unattainable and thus any model attempting it is inherently defective (recall Gödel). In other words, there is no absolutely correct model --... more info
Chris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More.
